Federal Budget Targets Rich Canadians For New Spending The budget focuses on helping Millennial and Gen Z voters experiencing rising housing costs and other inflationary pressures. The government has set fiscal anchors, such as keeping the deficit below 1% of GDP starting in 2027. The Canadian federal government released its 2023 budget over a year […]

Recent Signs Show Housing Activity Will Strengthen Meaningfully In April The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) announced today that national home sales for March were roughly flat, while new listings fell and prices stagnated. CREA analysts are confident that recent activity will harken stronger housing markets for the rest of this year. There is significant pent-up […]

The Bank of Canada Cautious, But A Rate Cut In June Is Possible Today, the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 5% for the sixth consecutive meeting and pledged to continue normalizing its balance sheet. Governor Macklem confirmed that inflation is moving in the right direction, labour markets are easing, and wage pressures […]

March’s Weak Jobs Report Sets The Stage For A June Rate Cut Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for March is much weaker than expected. Employment fell by 2,200, and the employment rate declined for the sixth consecutive month to 61.4%. Total hours worked in March were virtually unchanged but up 0.7% compared with 12 months earlier. The details […]

  Great News On The Inflation Front The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-over-year in February, down from the 2.9% January pace and much slower than the 3.1% expected rate. Gasoline prices rose in Canada for the first time in five months, which led many analysts to forecast a rise in February inflation as […]

February data bode well for a strong spring housing market The Canadian Real Estate Association announced today that national home sales dipped 3.1% m/m in February while home prices were flat, ending a five-month price decline that began last fall. It was noteworthy that prices remained unchanged from January to February, given that they dropped […]

February Job Gains Double Forecast As Unemployment Rate Ticks Up Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for February was a mixed bag and shows the dramatic effect of surging immigration. Canadian employment rose by a much stronger-than-expected 41,000, dominated by a 71,000 rise in full-time jobs. The employment rate–the proportion of the population aged 15 and older […]

The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady Until Core Inflation Falls Further Today, the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 5% for the fifth consecutive meeting and pledged to continue normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Policymakers remain concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation. The latest data show that CPI inflation fell […]

Still No Recession In Canada Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose a moderate 1.0% (seasonally adjusted annual rate), a tad better than expected and the Q3 contraction of -1.2% was revised to -0.5%. This leaves growth for 2023 at a moderate 1.1%. Monthly data, also released today by Statistics Canada, showed that December came in […]

Canadian Inflation Falls to 2.9% in January, Boosting Rate Cut Prospects Canadian Inflation Falls to 2.9% in January, Boosting Rate Cut Prospects 3.4% reading. The most significant contributor to the deceleration was a 4% decline in y/y gasoline prices, compared to a 1.4% rise the month before (see chart below). Excluding gasoline, headline CPI slowed […]