Bank of Canada Inflation Report

November’s CPI inflation rate fell only one tick to 6.8%, despite gasoline prices falling. This follows a two-month reading of 6.9%. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 5.4% yearly last month, up from 5.3% in October. Critical gauges of underlying price pressure were mixed but continued to creep higher. The all-important three-month trend in Core CPI edged to a 4.3% annualized rate from 4.0% the month before.

This is not good news and does nothing to assuage the central bank’s concerns about inflation. Price pressures remain stubbornly high, even as the economy slows and higher borrowing costs start to curb domestic demand.

Slower price growth for gasoline and furniture was partially offset by faster mortgage interest cost and rent growth. Headline inflation fell just one tick to 6.8% following two months at 6.9%, and core inflation remains sticky.

Bank of Canada Inflation Report

Digging into the still-strong core results revealed some new areas of concern. After years of helping hold back inflation, cellular services rose 2.0% y/yon “fewer promotions,” while rent took a big step up and is now at a 30-year high of 5.9% y/y (from 4.7% last month). Mortgage interest costs are another driving force, rising 14.5%, the most significant increase since February 1983. Just six months ago, they were still below year-ago levels. The transition from goods-led to services-driven inflation continues apace, with services prices up 5.8% y/y, or double the pace a year ago.

Prices for food purchased from stores rose 11.4% yearly, following an 11% gain in October.

Bank of Canada Inflation Report

Bottom Line

Before today’s report, traders were pricing in a pause at the next policy decision, with a possibility of a 25 basis-point hike. Barring an excellent inflation report for December, another rate hike is likely on January 25, likely a 25 bp hike. Given what’s happened in the first three weeks of this month, there is a good chance that the almost 14% drop in gasoline prices (compared to a 4% decline in December a year ago) could pull this month’s headline inflation down to 6.5%. However, many components of core inflation continue to rise.

While the BoC will slow the rate hikes in 2023, at least two or three more hikes are still possible, with no rate cuts likely next year. Remember, wage inflation is running at 5.6% y/y, and wage negotiations are getting more aggressive.

Bank of Canada Inflation Report

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Bank of Canada Inflation Report

Another Dip in Housing

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show home sales edged down in November. National home sales fell 3.3% between October and November, continuing the moderating sales trend that began last February on the precipice of unprecedented monetary policy tightening. Sales are down a whopping 39% from a year ago. The Bank of Canada has hiked their overnight policy rate by 400 bps, from 25 bps to 4.25%, triggering a whopping rise in mortgage rates.

About 60% of all local markets saw lower sales in November, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Edmonton, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Montreal.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in November 2022 came in 38.9% below a near-record for that month last year. It stood about 13% below the pre-COVID-19 10-year average for November sales (see chart below).

Another Dip in Housing

New Listings

Sellers remain on the sidelines as the number of newly listed homes edged down last month by 1.3%, declining 6.1% from a year ago. Most sellers are waiting for interest rates to fall, either because they expect a rebound in sellers or are unwilling to buy new properties themselves with mortgage rates so high.

While sales have swung wildly, new listing flows have remained relatively steady through the recent turbulence and are very much in line with pre-COVID norms. There’s still not a lot of forced selling, which can exacerbate a price correction.

New listings fell in slightly more than half of the local markets. Among the larger markets in Canada, month-over-month movements in new supply were generally small, the only exception being some more significant declines in the B.C. Lower Mainland and Okanagan regions.

In terms of monthly new supply, the bigger picture is listings are not flooding the market. With the one exception of 2019, November 2022 saw the fewest new listings for that month in 17 years.

With sales down month-over-month by a little more than new listings in November, the sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 49.9% compared to 50.9% in October. The ratio has remained close to around 50% since May. The long-term average for this measure is 55.1%.

Based on a comparison of the current sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, about 70% of local markets are currently in balanced market territory.

Another Dip in Housing

There were 4.2 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of November 2022. This is close to where this measure was in the months leading up to the initial COVID-19 lockdowns and still nearly a full month below its long-term average.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) edged down 1.4% month-over-month in November 2022, continuing the trend that began in the spring.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI now sits about 11.5% below its peak level. Breaking that down regionally, the general trend is prices are down somewhat more than they are nationally in Ontario and parts of B.C. and down by less elsewhere. While prices have softened to some degree almost everywhere, Calgary, Regina and Saskatoon stand out as markets where home prices are barely off their peaks at all.

There is a decline in MLS-HPI benchmark home prices in Canada and selected cities since prices peaked in March when the Bank of Canada began hiking interest rates. The most significant price dips are in the GTA and the GVA, where the price gains were spectacular during the COVID-shutdown.

Bottom Line

Another Dip in Housing

OSFI announced this morning that the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages at federally regulated financial institutions would remain unchanged. They will review Guideline B-20 next month, but don’t hold your breath for an easing of the stress test.

In other news, housing starts were little changed last month at 264,600 annualized units. This is a strong level of new construction; the year-to-date average is roughly 265,000 units. Combined with the record 275,000 new units started last year, we are in line for the most significant two-year wave of housing starts on record. On a per-capita basis, we’re starting 2023 with an unprecedented construction boom despite higher costs, labour shortages and much higher interest rates.

Outlook

The Bank of Canada is likely to raise the policy rate a couple of times by 25 bps in the first half of next year, pausing between rate hikes. They will not cut rates in 2023 even though the economy will post at least a mild contraction.

2024 will be a recovery year but don’t expect the overnight rate to return to the pre-Covid level of 1.75%. Indeed, the new cycle low will likely be more like 2.5% assuming inflation continues to trend downward. Price growth will be much more subdued than during the rocking ten-year period before the pandemic. Still, the underlying fundamentals of rapid population growth, mainly from immigration, bode well for sustained growth going forward.

Another Dip in Housing

Questions? Comments? Reach out:

📲 705-606-2727
📧 jmuir@dominionlending.ca
💻 https://jonmuirmortgages.ca
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Dominion Lending Centers – The Mortgage Source. Independently Owned and Operated.
License #: 10145
92 Caplan Ave #609, Barrie, ON L4N 9J2

Another Dip in Housing

Bank of Canada Hiked Rates 50 Basis Points

The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight policy rate by 50 basis points today to 4.25% and signalled that the Council would “consider whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target”. This is more dovish language than in earlier actions where they asserted that rates would need to rise further. Some have interpreted this new press release to imply that the Bank of Canada will now pause or pivot. I disagree.

I expect there will be additional rate hikes next year, but they will be more measured and not on every decision date. I also feel that the Bank will refrain from cutting the policy rate until 2024.

The Bank told us today that the “longer that consumers and businesses expect inflation to be above the target, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched”. CPI inflation remained at 6.9% in October, “with many of the goods and services Canadians regularly buy showing large price increases.

Bank of Canada Hiked Rates 50 Basis Points

Measures of core inflation remain around 5%. Three-month rates of change in core inflation have come down, an early indicator that price pressures may be losing momentum. However, inflation is still too high, and short-term inflation expectations remain elevated”.

The economy remains in excess demand, and the labour market is very tight. The jobless rate in November fell to 5.1%, and job vacancies increased in September. Wage inflation came in at 5.6% y/y in November for the second consecutive month, marking six straight months of wage inflation above 5%. While headline and core inflation have moderated from their recent peaks, they exceed the 2% target by a large measure.

The Bank will monitor incoming data, especially regarding the overheated labour market where the jobless rate is at historic lows. Housing has slowed sharply in recent months, but as long as labour markets are tight, a slowdown in other sectors will be muted. The Bank now says it expects the economy “to stall” in the current quarter and the first half of next year.

Bank of Canada Hiked Rates 50 Basis Points

Bottom Line

This will likely be the last oversized rate hike this cycle. The Governing Council next meets on January 25. Whether they raise rates will be data-dependent. If they do, it will likely be by 25 bps. Even if they pause at that meeting, it does not rule out additional moves later in the year if excess demand persists. I expect further monetary tightening, the continued bear market in equities, and a further correction in house prices.

Canadian benchmark home prices are already down nearly 10% nationwide. Several chartered banks told us this week that more than 25% of the remaining amortizations for their residential mortgages are 35 years and more. At renewal, these institutions expect to grant mortgages amortized at 25 years, which implies a substantial rise in monthly payments. That may well be three or four years away, but clearly, many households could be pinched unless mortgage rates plunge in the interim. I do not see the policy rate falling to its pre-COVID level of 1.75% over that period because inflation back then was less than 2%, an improbable circumstance as we advance. Although supply constraints may be easing, globalization has peaked. Semiconductors produced in the US will not be as cheap, and many rents, prices, and wages will be very sticky.

Bank of Canada Hiked Rates 50 Basis Points

📲 705-606-2727
📧 jmuir@dominionlending.ca
💻 https://jonmuirmortgages.ca
🌎 Google Business Page

Dominion Lending Centers – The Mortgage Source. Independently Owned and Operated.
License #: 10145
92 Caplan Ave #609, Barrie, ON L4N 9J2

Bank of Canada Hiked Rates 50 Basis Points

Bank of Canada Job Reports

Today’s Labour Force Survey for November will do little to assuage the Bank of Canada’s concern about inflation. While employment growth slowed to 10,100 net new jobs–down sharply from October’s reading–the report’s underlying details point to excess labour demand and rising wages. This is compounded by Monday’s data release showing that the Canadian economy grew by 2.9%, double the rate expected by the Bank of Canada. Everyone expects a slowdown in the current quarter and a modest contraction in the new year. However, excess demand is still running rampant in almost everything except housing.

Indicative of hiring strength, full-time employment was up a robust 50,700, and the private sector added 24,700 jobs. The jobless rate ticked down for the second consecutive month to 5.1%–well below the 5.7% rate posted immediately before the pandemic, which was considered full employment at that time. Total hours worked edged up, consistent with growth in the fourth quarter. And most notably, wage inflation came in at a year-over-year pace of 5.6% in November, the sixth consecutive month of greater than 5% wage inflation. Moreover, private and public sector unions demand even more significant wage gains as inflation remains close to 7%.

Businesses report difficulty filling jobs as job vacancies rose in the latest reading. The employment rate among core-aged women reached a new record high of 81.6% in November.
Employment rose in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing, manufacturing, information, culture, and recreation. At the same time, it fell in several industries, including construction and wholesale and retail trade.

Bank of Canada Job Reports

While employment increased in Quebec, it declined in five provinces, including Alberta and British Columbia.

Bottom Line

Today’s data are the last key input into the Bank of Canada’s December 7 interest rate decision. Overnight swap markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis-point hike next week, with traders putting about a one-third chance on a 50 basis-point move. Rising wages show no sign of cooling, and the economy posted much more robust growth in the third quarter than the Bank expected.

The overnight policy rate target is currently at 3.75%. If I were on the Bank’s Governing Council, I would vote for a 50-bps rise to 4.25%. Returning to a more typical 25 bps rise is premature, given inflation is a long way above the Bank’s 2% target. Inflation will not slow, with consumers and businesses expecting continued high inflation. Wage-price spiralling is a real risk until inflationary psychology can be broken.

In either case, additional rate hikes early next year are likely. Even when the central bank pauses, it will not pivot to rate cuts for an extended period. Market-driven longer-term interest rates have fallen significantly as market participants expect a recession in 2023. Fixed mortgage rates have fallen as well. The inverted yield curve will remain through much of 2023, with a housing recovery in 2024.

Bank of Canada Job Reports

📲 705-606-2727
📧 jmuir@dominionlending.ca
💻 https://jonmuirmortgages.ca
🌎 Google Business Page

Dominion Lending Centers – The Mortgage Source. Independently Owned and Operated.
License #: 10145
92 Caplan Ave #609, Barrie, ON L4N 9J2

Bank of Canada Job Reports