Brisk Wage Gains in December Will Keep The BoC Watchful

General Jon Muir 5 Jan

Brisk Wage Gains in December Will Keep The BoC Watchful Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for December was a mixed bag and far more robust than the weak headline figure suggests. Total employment in Canada barely budged, rising by a mere 100 jobs in the final month of last year. However, the labour force participation […]

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Inflation Held Steady In November

General Jon Muir 19 Dec

Inflation Held Steady In November     Inflation Held Steady In November Today’s inflation report was stronger than expected, unchanged from October’s 3.1% pace. While some had forecast a sub-3% reading, the November CPI data posted a welcome slowdown in food and shelter prices. Increases in recreation and clothing offset this–both are discretionary purchases. Cellular services […]

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Housing Markets Prepare For A 2024 Rebound

General Jon Muir 14 Dec

Housing Markets Prepare For A 2024 Rebound   Before we get into the details of the November housing market data released this morning by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), big positive news for housing occurred yesterday. The US Federal Reserve gave its clearest signal yet that its historic policy tightening campaign is over by […]

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The Bank of Canada Held Rates Steady and Took A More Neutral Tone

General Jon Muir 6 Dec

The Bank of Canada Held Rates Steady and Took A More Neutral Tone     It was widely expected that the Bank of Canada would maintain its key policy rate at 5% for the third consecutive time. It will continue to sell government securities (quantitative tightening) to normalize its balance sheet. Market participants weighed and […]

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Good News On the Inflation Front Suggests Policy Rates Have Peaked

General Jon Muir 21 Nov

Good News On the Inflation Front Suggests Policy Rates Have Peaked Today’s inflation report showed a continued improvement, mainly due to falling year-over-year (y/y) gasoline prices. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% y/y, down from the 3.8% rise in September. There were no surprises here, so markets moved little on the news. Excluding […]

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Home Sales Plummet In October

General Jon Muir 15 Nov

Home Sales Plummet In October   Housing affordability is the number-one issue causing the significant decline in housing activity, adding to PM Justin Trudeau’s political problems. With the growing impact of unaffordable housing and the slowing labour market, activity in the real estate market should remain subdued for the rest of this year. Home sales dropped 5.6% […]

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WEAK OCTOBER JOBS TAKES BOC RATE HIKES OFF THE TABLE

General Jon Muir 4 Nov

Weak October Jobs Take BOC Rate Hikes Off The Table Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for October was weak across the board. Total job gains were meagre, full-time jobs fell, hours worked were flat, wage inflation eased (a bit), and the unemployment rate rose. Employment changed little in October, up only 17,500 (0.1%), after rising […]

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HAWKISH HOLD BY THE BANK OF CANADA

General Jon Muir 25 Oct

Hawkish Hold By The Bank Of Canada The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, as was widely expected. The central bank continues to normalize its balance sheet through quantitative tightening, reducing its Government of Canada bonds holdings. The Monetary Policy Report (MPR) detailed a slowdown in global economic […]

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INFLATION FRONT SUGGESTS POLICY RATES HAVE PEAKED

General Jon Muir 17 Oct

Inflation Front Suggests Policy Rates Have Peaked Today’s inflation report for September was considerably better than expected, ending the three-month rise in inflation. Not only did the headline inflation rate fall, but so did the core measures of inflation on a year-over-year basis and a three-month moving average basis. This, in combination with the weak […]

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